Friday, August 21, 2009

Disapproved Even Further

So we read in the Wall Street Journal:

WASHINGTON -- President Barack Obama, seeking to rally his base, accused Republican leaders Thursday of trying to block a health-care overhaul from the start and again threw his weight behind a government-run insurance plan. ...

On the Michael Smerconish radio show Thursday, the president said: "Early on a decision was made by the Republican leadership that said, 'Look, let's not give them a victory and maybe we can have a replay of 1993-94 when Clinton came in. He failed on health care, and then we won in the midterm elections, and we got the majority.'"

Obama having made the comparison, and we having been stuck on polls lately, let's run with this. So far we've used approval polls from the Real Clear Politics average and Rasmussen.

Onward to Gallup. Let's compare Obama and Clinton from each president's inauguration through mid-August. Only this time, let's look how each one performed compared to his numbers in the first Gallup poll after his inauguration. What kind of movement did each experience in his approval and disapproval numbers in those first seven months.

Obama v. Clinton Aprroval Ratings

In their first seven months in office:

  • Clinton's approval dropped 14 points and his disapproval rose 27
  • Obama's approval dropped 13 points and his disapproval rose 27

Being change he can't believe in, Obama wants to blame it on the VRWC, Republicans in Congress and concerned citizens evil mongers at Congressional townhalls.

Whatevs. Even if true, he is admitting that his hindsight is nowhere near 20/20 (the Clinton experience isn't exactly a secret, is it?), his ability to drive a national debate is nowhere near presidential (he's passed many more bucks than bills so far, and the pace will only likely accelerate) and his skin is nowhere near thick enough (he's getting more wee wee'd up than anyone else in this whole process) to take the rigors of the job from what we've seen so far.

It's time for a "gird your loins" pep talk from VP Biden. And that's a pretty sad state of affairs.

If you're Obama, that is, which I'm not. Or if you support Obama, which I don't. So it's a state of affairs that is not sad. If you're me, that is, which I am.

Sunday, August 16, 2009

More Disapproved

In our last post, we drew this conclusion:

Obama: Much more unpopular than Bush

And that was based on each President's Real Clear Politics approval rating for the July of their first terms. Obama's disapproval rating was at 37.8% and Bush's was at 31%.

OK, let's cut to Rasmussen, who reports today:

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Sunday shows that 32% of the nation's voters Strongly Approve of the way that Barack Obama is performing his role as President. Forty-one percent (41%) Strongly Disapprove giving Obama a Presidential Approval Index rating of -9 (see trends).

Today’s update marks the highest level of Strong Disapproval for President Obama.

Here's the graph:

That's an alarmingly upwardly sloping red line there, isn't it? And 41%? That's sounds alarmingly high.

Well. Consider this, from Rasmussen last January, as Bush was on his way out of the White House:

In the final full month of his Presidency, just 13% of American adults said they Strongly Approved of the way that George W. Bush performed his job as president. Forty-three percent (43%) Strongly Disapproved.

At the end of eight years, Bush's Strongly Disapprove number was just 2% worse than Obama's is right now, at the beginning of just his eighth month in office.

Yikes! Obama is operating with ruthless efficiency.

So while our statement above is correct, insofar as when comparing Obama and Bush at the same point in their presidencies, Obama is much more unpopular than Bush was, it is NOT correct to claim that Obama now is much more unpopular than Bush was when he left office.

Therefore, in this context we will revise our wording:

Obama: Barely less strongly disapproved of than Bush