Monday, November 19, 2012

Obama's Voter Repression

I promised myself I wasn't going to do this. But when it comes to promises I make to myself, I keep them at an almost Obamaian rate.

Oh well. Let's continue on with some election results and exit polls.

Another way to slice the data -- by Ideology. Because looking at it by Party doesn't tell us nearly as much as one might think. If Romney got fewer Republicans than McCain, how do we know whether this was truly "the base" staying home because they weren't sufficiently "fired up"? When I'm referring to "the base", I'm referring to . . . ta da . . . Ideology. Take me, for example. I am very conservative. But I am also a registered Independent. Were I to be exit-polled, my vote would not show up as Republican, but it would be Conservative. By what I would consider a rational definition of a Republican candidate's "base", I should be included.

A number of Republicans may have stayed home -- at this point Romney has about 160K fewer Republican votes than McCain got -- but was it "the base"?

Well.

Conservatives turned out at 35% of voters in 2012 vs 34% in 2008.
Moderates were 41% in 2012 vs 44% in 2008
Liberals were 25% in 2012 vs 22% in 2008

Moderates stayed home, and Liberals picked up the slack.

But let's break it down, shall we?

The Liberals who came out were less liberal in how they voted.

The Overall Liberal vote in 2012 was Obama 86%, Romney 11% and Other 3%
The Overall Liberal vote in 2008 was Obama 89%, McCain 10% and Other 1%

In 2012, 2M more Liberals voted than in 2008.

For those 2M -- the race roughly broke down:

Obama: 980K | 48.9%
Romney: 570K | 28.4%
Other: 480K | 24.1%

The mechanics of breaking down the Liberal vote this way is very crude. It starts with the assumption that the "first" 28.9M Liberals (the number of Liberals voting in 2008) voted exactly as they did in 2008. It then takes the 2M more Liberals who came out in 2012, and breaks down their votes in the ratios necessary to get to the Overall 2012 split between Obama-Romney-Other. The votes didn't actually come in that way, of course. But I present it in this manner just to illustrate the contrast between 2008 and 2012.

The Moderates who did come out out broke heavily for Other compared to 2008, but Romney lost way fewer than Obama.

The Overall Moderate vote in 2012 was Obama 56%, Romney 41%, Other 3%
The Overall Moderate vote in 2008 was Obama 60%, McCain 39%, Other 1%

In 2012 there were 6.8M fewer Moderates than in 2008

Obama got 5.9M fewer Moderate votes
Romney got 1.6M fewer Moderate votes
Other got 700K more Moderate votes

The Conservatives who came out were more conservative in how they voted.

The Overall Conservative vote in 2012 was Obama 17%, Romey 82%, Other 1%
The Overall Conservative vote in 2008 was Obama 20%, McCain 78%, Other 2%

In 2012 there were 1.2M fewer Conservatives than in 2008.

Obama got 1.4M fewer Conservative votes
Romney got 830K more Conservative votes
Other got 675K fewer Conservative votes

Essentially, Obama lost 100% of the Conservative votes who came out in 2008 and stayed home in 2012.

Between the Moderates and Conservatives who stayed home, it would appear a vast majority of them were 2008 Obama voters who chose not to participate in the 2012 election. It would also appear that the 2008 Republican votes that Romney did not secure compared to McCain were Moderate in ideology.

Obama went completely negative with Bain and the 47%, with the made up war on women and birth control, with anything at hand to avoid a focus on his record by focusing on very emotive appeals in a smearing of Romney. It was a very disciplined effort to convince voters he knew had no appetite for repeating their vote for him that Romney was not worth getting off the couch and going to the polls for.

Obama deliberately ran a Repress As Many Votes As Necessary To Keep Potential Romney Voters Home. And he ran it successfully.

Saturday, November 17, 2012

Obama Wins. Thanks To Sandy?

Well. The election is over. I've been wading my way through the vote results and exit polls in an almost unhealthy manner. If you want to know how many fewer votes Obama got vs 2008, I can tell you (6.3M as of now). If you want to know how many fewer Republicans voted for Romney vs McCain, I can tell you (346K as of now). If you want to know in which states Romney improved vs McCain in 2008, I can tell you (all but AK, LA, MS, NJ). And on and on.

So. Why did Romney lose?

After reading the post election analysis at Gallup, it just may be that a natural disaster played a prominent, if not deciding role.

The Gallup analysis:

Romney clearly gained as a result of the first debate in Denver, and he held onto at least a marginal lead position in our polling until the week before the election, when Superstorm Sandy hit. Obama gained five points on the gap between our last pre-storm polling and the final poll. It may be that he continued to gain on into Election Day.

If you want to know how Hurricane Sandy affected the election, well, here we go. Because, it's right there in the exit polls.

  • 15% of voters said Obama's response to Sandy was "the most important factor" in their vote.
  • Of that percentage, 73% voted for Obama.

  • Now I don't believe that every person who said Sandy was the most important factor was a true on-the-fence-sitter who then decided to vote for Obama. Or a former Romney supporter who switched. Or a definite sitter-outer who decided to get off the couch and vote. Many of them were going to vote for Obama regardless.

    But what is 73% of 15%?

    10.95%

    I believe some number of those who said Obama's response to Sandy was the most important factor in their vote were lying. But what if those who were lying made up a little more than half of those who made such a claim. In other words, they were on Team O all along. That would leave us with just under half of them who made their decision on voting for president based upon a guy in a bomber jacket at an appearance with a fat Republican pretending to care about storm victims for a few minutes to get a photo op.

    Could Obama really have won the election because of Hurricane Sandy? Gallup says that Obama gained five points after Sandy. The national popular vote ended up with Obama leading with less than three points.

    And this nation is faced with another four years of Obama in the White House.