Obama's Voter Repression

I promised myself I wasn't going to do this. But when it comes to promises I make to myself, I keep them at an almost Obamaian rate.

Oh well. Let's continue on with some election results and exit polls.

Another way to slice the data -- by Ideology. Because looking at it by Party doesn't tell us nearly as much as one might think. If Romney got fewer Republicans than McCain, how do we know whether this was truly "the base" staying home because they weren't sufficiently "fired up"? When I'm referring to "the base", I'm referring to . . . ta da . . . Ideology. Take me, for example. I am very conservative. But I am also a registered Independent. Were I to be exit-polled, my vote would not show up as Republican, but it would be Conservative. By what I would consider a rational definition of a Republican candidate's "base", I should be included.

A number of Republicans may have stayed home -- at this point Romney has about 160K fewer Republican votes than McCain got -- but was it "the base"?

Well.

Conservatives turned out at 35% of voters in 2012 vs 34% in 2008.
Moderates were 41% in 2012 vs 44% in 2008
Liberals were 25% in 2012 vs 22% in 2008

Moderates stayed home, and Liberals picked up the slack.

But let's break it down, shall we?

The Liberals who came out were less liberal in how they voted.

The Overall Liberal vote in 2012 was Obama 86%, Romney 11% and Other 3%
The Overall Liberal vote in 2008 was Obama 89%, McCain 10% and Other 1%

In 2012, 2M more Liberals voted than in 2008.

For those 2M -- the race roughly broke down:

Obama: 980K | 48.9%
Romney: 570K | 28.4%
Other: 480K | 24.1%

The mechanics of breaking down the Liberal vote this way is very crude. It starts with the assumption that the "first" 28.9M Liberals (the number of Liberals voting in 2008) voted exactly as they did in 2008. It then takes the 2M more Liberals who came out in 2012, and breaks down their votes in the ratios necessary to get to the Overall 2012 split between Obama-Romney-Other. The votes didn't actually come in that way, of course. But I present it in this manner just to illustrate the contrast between 2008 and 2012.

The Moderates who did come out out broke heavily for Other compared to 2008, but Romney lost way fewer than Obama.

The Overall Moderate vote in 2012 was Obama 56%, Romney 41%, Other 3%
The Overall Moderate vote in 2008 was Obama 60%, McCain 39%, Other 1%

In 2012 there were 6.8M fewer Moderates than in 2008

Obama got 5.9M fewer Moderate votes
Romney got 1.6M fewer Moderate votes
Other got 700K more Moderate votes

The Conservatives who came out were more conservative in how they voted.

The Overall Conservative vote in 2012 was Obama 17%, Romey 82%, Other 1%
The Overall Conservative vote in 2008 was Obama 20%, McCain 78%, Other 2%

In 2012 there were 1.2M fewer Conservatives than in 2008.

Obama got 1.4M fewer Conservative votes
Romney got 830K more Conservative votes
Other got 675K fewer Conservative votes

Essentially, Obama lost 100% of the Conservative votes who came out in 2008 and stayed home in 2012.

Between the Moderates and Conservatives who stayed home, it would appear a vast majority of them were 2008 Obama voters who chose not to participate in the 2012 election. It would also appear that the 2008 Republican votes that Romney did not secure compared to McCain were Moderate in ideology.

Obama went completely negative with Bain and the 47%, with the made up war on women and birth control, with anything at hand to avoid a focus on his record by focusing on very emotive appeals in a smearing of Romney. It was a very disciplined effort to convince voters he knew had no appetite for repeating their vote for him that Romney was not worth getting off the couch and going to the polls for.

Obama deliberately ran a Repress As Many Votes As Necessary To Keep Potential Romney Voters Home. And he ran it successfully.

Obama Wins. Thanks To Sandy?

Well. The election is over. I've been wading my way through the vote results and exit polls in an almost unhealthy manner. If you want to know how many fewer votes Obama got vs 2008, I can tell you (6.3M as of now). If you want to know how many fewer Republicans voted for Romney vs McCain, I can tell you (346K as of now). If you want to know in which states Romney improved vs McCain in 2008, I can tell you (all but AK, LA, MS, NJ). And on and on.

So. Why did Romney lose?

After reading the post election analysis at Gallup, it just may be that a natural disaster played a prominent, if not deciding role.

The Gallup analysis:

Romney clearly gained as a result of the first debate in Denver, and he held onto at least a marginal lead position in our polling until the week before the election, when Superstorm Sandy hit. Obama gained five points on the gap between our last pre-storm polling and the final poll. It may be that he continued to gain on into Election Day.

If you want to know how Hurricane Sandy affected the election, well, here we go. Because, it's right there in the exit polls.

15% of voters said Obama's response to Sandy was "the most important factor" in their vote.

Of that percentage, 73% voted for Obama.

Now I don't believe that every person who said Sandy was the most important factor was a true on-the-fence-sitter who then decided to vote for Obama. Or a former Romney supporter who switched. Or a definite sitter-outer who decided to get off the couch and vote. Many of them were going to vote for Obama regardless.

But what is 73% of 15%?

10.95%

I believe some number of those who said Obama's response to Sandy was the most important factor in their vote were lying. But what if those who were lying made up a little more than half of those who made such a claim. In other words, they were on Team O all along. That would leave us with just under half of them who made their decision on voting for president based upon a guy in a bomber jacket at an appearance with a fat Republican pretending to care about storm victims for a few minutes to get a photo op.

Could Obama really have won the election because of Hurricane Sandy? Gallup says that Obama gained five points after Sandy. The national popular vote ended up with Obama leading with less than three points.

And this nation is faced with another four years of Obama in the White House.

Defense . . . D-Fence

Here's the headline from a Hot Air post today:

Halperin: Democrats now on defense in blue states

Well, here's Obama campaigning in Michigan:

Looks like some Obama supporters know they're on defense.

(from an old 2008 post)

Fun With Early Voting In North Carolina, "How Do You Like Them Apples?" Edition

With voting totals through yesterday, North Carolina marks one week of early voting that includes in-person votes cast.

With that, we can do an apples-to-apples comparison between 2012 and 2008. All numbers below for both 2012 and 2008 are through one week of in person early voting, and have been pulled from the North Carolina State Board of Elections website.

Overall vote:
2008: 759,238
2012: 991,794
Difference: +232,556
Number of votes cast is up +30.6%

Republicans:
2008: 196,242
2012: 302,687
Difference +106,445
Number of votes is up 54.2%

Democrats:
2008: 429,662
2012: 502,856
Difference: 73,194
Number of votes is up 17.0%

Other:
2008: 133,334
2012: 184,507
Difference: 52,917
Number of votes is up 39.9%

2008 vote percentage by party registration:
Rep: 25.8%
Dem: 56.6%
Oth: 17.6%

2012 vote percentage by party registration (net vs 2008):
Rep: 30.5% (+4.7%)
Dem: 50.7% (-5.9%)
Oth: 18.6% (+1.4%)

Democrats *do* have a 20 point lead over Republicans at this point. But that compares to a 31 point lead at this point in 2008.

BOTTOM LINE: Republicans have gained a net 10.6 points compared to 2008.

But as I’ve cautioned before – the results released by the North Carolina State Board of Elections only tells us the party registration of the person who cast the ballot. We do not know who the person actually voted for.

Obviously there will be some Republicans voting for Obama, some Democrats voting for Romney, and there is no indication from these statistics that tells us for whom those not affiliated with either major party voted.

However, we can build a model that allots those votes to tabulate a likely scenario of how the race stands, and how it compares to the likely state of the race at this point in 2008.

I am going to do two things. First, I will take the 2008 early voting totals through the first week of in person voting by party registration and allot those votes based upon the 2008 North Carolina exit polls. Second, I will take the 2012 votes and allot them based upon the most recent Rasmussen poll.

Off we go.

2008

At this point in 2008, breakdown of total votes by party:
Rep: 25.8%
Dem: 56.6%
Other:17.6%

In 2008, the exit polls showed the following:

Republicans:
McCain: 94% | Obama: 4% | Other: 2%
Democrats
McCain: 9% | Obama: 90% | Other: 1%
Independent
McCain: 60% | Obama: 39% | Other: 1%

So for example, we are taking the 25.8% of early voters who were Republican, and allocating those votes such that 94% went to McCain, 4% went to Obama and 2% went to Other.

Weighting all votes in that manner, the state of the race at this point in 2008 looks like this:

Estimated Vote Totals:
McCain: 303,137 | 39.9%
Obama: 446,546 | 58.8%

Using this methodology, in 2008 Obama held at 18.9 point lead, or 143,509 votes, over McCain after one week of early voting in North Carolina.

2012

At this point in 2012, breakdown of total votes by party:
Rep: 30.5%
Dem: 50.7%
Oth: 18.6%

Rasmussen’s latest poll in North Carolina asked responders who they intended to vote for – and asked them which party they belonged to. His results show the following:

Republicans
Romney: 94% | Obama: 4% | Other: 2%
Democrats
Romney: 17% | Obama: 82% | Other: 1%
Other
Romney: 59% | Obama: 36% | Other: 5%

Weighting the votes by how each category is likely to vote using Rasmussen’s survey, the state of the race at this point in 2012 looks like this:

Estimated Vote Totals:
Romney: 479,899 | 48.4%
Obama: 491,500 | 49.6%

Using this methodology, in 2012 Obama holds a 1.2% lead, or 11,600 votes, over Romney after one week of early voting in North Carolina.

With an 18.9 point lead at this point in 2008, Obama ultimately won 50.2% to 49.8%.

With an estimated 143,509 vote lead in 2008, Obama ultimately won by a 14,177 vote margin.

Obama is now leading by 1.2 points and 11,600 votes.

The big advantage Obama had after even just one week of early voting in 2008 more or less has been cut down to less than his razor-thin margin by the end of the election.

From this point forward in 2008, McCain gained 129,232 net votes over Obama in the remainder of early voting and on election day. Even if Romney’s strength and Obama’s weakness so far in early voting is not carried through, and Romney only equals McCain’s performance the rest of the way, Romney would win North Carolina by about a 2-3 point margin.

If Romney continues to outperform McCain, even modestly compared to what he has done so far, that margin of victory is easily pushed to something approaching a 8-10 point win.

There is a reason that the rumors have flown around about Obama pulling resources out of and ads off the air in North Carolina. First the polling began to swing away from Obama and toward Romney, and now the results of early voting have begun to confirm that polling. While Team Obama has gone on record denying that they are abandoning the state, one gets the feeling that this is more an attempt to keep up appearances so that the narrative of a campaign that is reeling does not take hold.

If I had to call this race today – which I don’t, but I will because that’s how I roll – I would predict the final outcome a 54-45 win for Romney.

Real Clear Politics Polls At This Point in 2004 and 2008

In 2004, there were 7 polls in the Real Clear Politics average of polls between 10/15 and 10/22.

The average of those polls was Bush +2.3

The final outcome was Bush +2.4

In 2008, there were 14 polls in the Real Clear Politics average of polls between 10/15 and 10/22 (removing outfits that had multiple polls during that timeframe to only show the latest).

The average of those polls was Obama +7.6

The final outcome was Obama +7.3

Fun With Early Voting in North Carolina

In person early voting begins today here in the great state of North Carolina.

But let’s have some fun with the state’s early voting so far. This means only absentee votes at this point.

These numbers were pulled from the NC Board of Elections, and are current as of Sunday, September 14. The 2008 numbers I will be using are from George Mason University’s United States Elections Project.

Off we go!

Total Votes: 50,674
Dem: 13,887 - 27.4%
Rep: 27,455 - 54.2%
Unaffiliated: 9,255 - 18.3%
Libertarian: 77 - 0.2%

Compare that with 2008:
Dem: 51.4%
Rep: 30.2%
Other: 18.5%

The 2012 numbers are breakouts by registration, not by vote cast (of course, you can't vote for unaffiliated!). But certainly if some assumptions are made -- it appears there has been a complete flip of the parties, at least at this point. But we are in the early part of early voting.

Notably, the black vote makes up 7.1% of the 2012 early vote total -- 23% of the Democrat vote and 0.2% of the Republican vote. In 2008, they were 27% of the total early vote.

It remains to be seen if this is evidence of blacks staying home, or if they are less enthusiastic to get votes in early but will still vote when all is said and done.

One interesting contrast specifically is Cumberland County. Cumberland was a 52-48 state for Bush in 2004, and a 59-41 state for Obama in 2008. In fact, in 2008 Obama picked up a net of 26K more votes in Cumberbland County compared to Kerry in 2004. And remember, North Carolina was a state Obama won by only 14K votes statewide.

The registration breakdown for early voting in Cumberland County so far is...
Dem: 33%
Rep: 47%
Unaf: 19%

And another interesting contrast between 2012 and 2008 is Durham County. This is the home of, well, Durham which is home of Duke. It's a Democrat stronghold.

Durham is the 6th largest county in NC by population. In early voting, it's 17th in terms of ballots cast.

In 2008 Durham County went 74% Obama, 26% McCain

Early voting so far...
Dem: 46%
Rep: 31%
Unaf: 23%

And finally, Iredell County is the 16th largest county by population. In early voting, it's 8th in terms of ballots cast.

In 2008 Iredell County went 62% McCain, 37% Obama

Early voting so far:
Dem: 15%
Rep:66%
Unaf: 19%

How fun was that? The numbers look good for Mitt Romney and rater dire for President Obama.

However, let’s be clear that we can't claim these numbers as predictive. The comparisons I am making are between absentee ballots cast by party affiliation at this point in the election versus all early voting in 2008 by actual votes. Professor McDonald at the US Elections Project site does a much more thorough job of not only tracking the early numbers for this and past elections, he is able to do a “on this date in 2008” comparison. I would strongly suggest anyone wanting a real comparison between elections to go to his site.

That said, having seen the news yesterday that Obama is likely shifting resources and efforts away from North Carolina – numbers like these become another data point to consider that reinforces the idea that Mitt Romney is increasingly likely to win the state.

I wouldn’t mind not being one of the hotly contested battleground states, and I certainly would have no beef if the unrelenting number of campaign ads were trimmed as a result. Then again, if Obama wants to continue pouring money into a state he has a diminishing chance of winning at the expense of more time in states more closely contested, well, I will bear that burden for the cause. Besides, I know how to operate a remote control.

President Obama Leads From Behind...

...Hillary's pantsuit.

Joe Biden's Got A Fever

Biden At The VP Debate

Big Bird Reacts...

Big Bird reacts to Vice President Joe Biden's debate performance last night.

The 3 am Call Obama Will Take

UPDATE: A better pic has emerged.

Calls from Ambassadors go to voice mail.

Facebook Eastwoods Its Homepage

Just went to log on to Facebook. Here's what their home page currently looks like:

Who knew they were such big fans of Clint Eastwood's Empty Chair speech at the Republican Convention.

"When somebody doesn't do the job, you gotta let them go."

2012 Obama Deploys Trick That 2008 Obama Said Would Cause Voters To Stop Listening

Obama got crushed in the first debate. Everyone...left, right, center, up, down and diagonal knew it. Some of Obama's biggest fans were screaming at him for how bad he was, or practically crying uncontrollably as a result.

And yet, Obama walked away thinking he had won.

Now he's been told how thoroughly he was trounced -- so here come the excuses:

“I think it’s fair to say I was just too polite, because it’s hard to sometimes just keep on saying and what you’re saying isn’t true. It gets repetitive." ...President Obama said

Ace calls this the CritiBrag, which he describes this way:

...the claim of self-criticism which, oddly enough, winds up being a brag on one's virtue -- is kinda sorta complete 100% bullshit. Every time you've told a prospective employer that your "greatest failing" was that you "are too details-oriented" and "can't learn to separate myself from my work" you've deployed the CritiBrag.

Ah yes. As fate would have it, Obama actually called out Hillary and John Edwards for CritiBragging in 2008:

Obama poked fun at John Edwards and Hillary Clinton for their response to the "what is your weakness" question at the MSNBC debate. Obama said that he answered the question as an "ordinary person."

"Folks, they don't tell you what they mean!" exclaimed Obama.

"I thought that they meant 'what's your biggest weakness?!' So I said 'well you know I don't handle paper that well, you know, my desk is a mess, I need somebody to help me file and stuff all the time.'"

"So the other two they say well my biggest weakness is 'I'm just too passionate about helping poor people.' I am just too impatient to bring about change in America.'"

Obama joked, "If I had gone last I would have known what the game was. I could have said 'well you know I like to help old ladies across the street. Sometimes they don't want to be helped. It's terrible.'"

Back to Ace, who tells us the natural result of CritiBagging in an interview:

And your interviewer rolled his eyes. If not his visible ones, then internal one called the pineal gland.

Which -- and again, look at the fate -- agrees with how Obama viewed CritiBagging in 2008 as well:

Obama ended by calling Clinton's comments "tricks" and said voters will stop listening to politicians because of them.

2008 Obama was speaking that as a theory. 2012 Obama is learning it in practice.

The Obama Debate Word Cloud

From the Obama-Romney Presidential Debate in Denver, Colorado on October 3, 2012:

When he was flustered by Mitt Romney's answer on the topic of taxes, President Obama reached out to debate moderator Jim Leher to save him by saying, "Jim, I — you may want to move on to another topic."

UPDATE: Via Instapundit, we have a video of President Obam-uh from the debates. I decided to go back and adjust the transcipt and the resulting word cloud based on including several previously omitted words:

FWIW, I covered Obamuh back in 2008 as well.

Obama Supporters Finger Oiho

Again, bored...

h/t Inspiration, Frau!

Barack Wasserman Debbie Hussein Schultz Obama

This is what happens when I'm bored.

Obama Expresses An Alarming Amount Of Intolerance For Someone Who Thinks Intolerance Is A Form Of Violence

"It is time to heed the words of Gandhi: 'Intolerance is itself a form of violence and an obstacle to the growth of a true democratic spirit.'"
--stuff Obama said at the U.N. Assembly yesterday

That's a pretty silly statement. Because if it's true, we must conclude that the Obama presidency has been marked by an alarming level of violence, what with all the times he's proclaimed something he wouldn't tolerate.

Has the Nobel Committee been made aware of this?

Obama is proposing a form of violence to:
1) Enforce stem cell research guidelines
2) End wasteful inefficiency in government
3) Eliminate employers exploiting undocumented workers
4) Extirpate red tape in Katrina rebuilding efforts
5) Effectuate treaty obligations
6) Exclude dissension in his administration
7) Exterminate sexual violence
8) Enable latitude in enemy combatant detentions
9) Empower sanctions to keep Iran from getting nuclear weapons
10) Ensure violence isn't legimated (except his own, apparently)

1) March 9, 2009
Remarks of President Barack Obama – Signing of Stem Cell Executive Order and Scientific Integrity Presidential Memorandum
We will support it only when it is both scientifically worthy and responsibly conducted. We will develop strict guidelines, which we will rigorously enforce, because we cannot ever tolerate misuse or abuse.

2) April 25, 2009
WEEKLY ADDRESS: President Obama Announces Steps to Reform Government and Promote Fiscal Discipline
We cannot sustain deficits that mortgage our children's future, nor tolerate wasteful inefficiency.

3) June 19, 2009
REMARKS BY THE PRESIDENT
AT THE ESPERANZA NATIONAL HISPANIC PRAYER BREAKFAST
The American people -- the American people believe in immigration, but they also believe that we can't tolerate a situation where people come to the United States in violation of the law, nor can we tolerate employers who exploit undocumented workers in order to drive down wages.

4) August 29, 2009
WEEKLY ADDRESS: President Obama Marks Fourth Anniversary of Hurricane Katrina; Will Visit New Orleans Later This Year
I have also made it clear that we will not tolerate red tape that stands in the way of progress, or the waste that can drive up the bill.

5) April 8, 2010
Remarks by President Obama and President Medvedev of Russia at New START Treaty Signing Ceremony and Press Conference
And we will not tolerate actions that flout the NPT, risk an arms race in a vital region, and threaten the credibility of the international community and our collective security.

6) June 23, 2010
Statement by the President in the Rose Garden
I’ve just told my national security team that now is the time for all of us to come together. Doing so is not an option, but an obligation. I welcome debate among my team, but I won’t tolerate division.

7) March 31, 2011
Presidential Proclamation--National Sexual Assault Awareness and Prevention Month
We must continue to reinforce that America will not tolerate sexual violence within our borders.

8) December 31, 2011
Statement by the President on H.R. 1540
I will not tolerate that result, and under no circumstances will my Administration accept or adhere to a rigid across-the-board requirement for military detention.

9) January 19, 2012
Remarks by the President at a Campaign Event
Part of it is mobilizing an unprecedented campaign of sanctions and pressure on Iran, and stating unequivocally that we’re not going to tolerate a nuclear weapon in the hands of this Iranian regime.

10) September 20, 2012
Remarks by the President at Univision Town Hall with Jorge Ramos and Maria Elena Salinas
...we worked with Secretary Clinton to redouble our security and to send a message to the leaders of these countries, essentially saying, although we had nothing to do with the video, we find it offensive, it's not representative of America's views, how we treat each other with respect when it comes to their religious beliefs, but we will not tolerate violence.

Obama's Way Of Confronting Evil

The future must not belong to those who target Coptic Christians in Egypt – it must be [blah blah blah]. The future must not belong to those who bully women – it must be shaped by [blah blah blah]. ...

The future must not belong to those who slander the prophet of Islam. Yet to be credible, those who condemn that slander must also condemn the hate we see when [blah blah blah]. It is time to heed the words of Gandhi: “Intolerance is itself a form of violence and an obstacle to the growth of a true democratic spirit.”

--stuff Obama said in his U.N. speech

This reminds me of two things I covered previously here.

First -- Obama's speech after the Virginia Tech murders -- after dozens of innocents had been gunned down, Obama used the occasion to tell us, "There's another type of violence . . . the verbal violence [of Don Imus]. The violence of kids not getting a decent education. The violence when someone's job is shipped overseas."

People are dying at the hands of thugs and terrorists. And Obama uses words like "target" and "bully" instead. He worries about the "slander" of the religion in whose name those killings are taking place -- but only talks about the people committing the murders with words such as "hate".

And in not mentioning the actual killings, he refers us to Ghandi and promotes the idea that the whole problem is "intolerance".

It's the old Ace of Spades formulation turned on its head ... "32 Innocent Copts Killed by Intolerance and Mortars. But Mostly Intolerance" "Young Woman Who Was Raped by Her Uncle, Killed to Preserve Family Honor by Bullying and Beheading. But Mostly the Bullying"

Second -- it also reminds me of the forum Obama and McCain attended at Saddleback Church in 2008. Pastor Rick Warren asked whether evil exists and if it does, “do we ignore it? Do we negotiate with it? Do we contain it? Do we defeat it?”

Obama's answer? "Confront it."

To Obama that means give a speech (with code words to hide or blur the true nature of the evil).

I Met Jennifer Granholm

I had the opportunity to attend an event on Friday evening at which Jennifer Granholm was a featured speaker. After the event, I got to meet her. I expressed to her just how much I enjoyed her Democratic National Convention speech. She said she had a lot of fun with it. We all had fun with her speech.

If you click the pic, you can see the non-yellow-happy-faced version.

If you click here, you can read all about the background of meeting Ms. Granholm, including the fun day of meeting with fellow commenters at Just One Minute.

Media: Behead Campaigns Who Insult The Prophet Obama

When Mitt Romney criticized the Obama administration's initial response to protests at the US Embassy in Egypt, this is what ensured:

(click to enlarge)