Showing posts with label Election 2008. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Election 2008. Show all posts

Wednesday, November 5, 2008

Election Postmortem

I don't think I've ever seen such a look of misery and dejection on the face of my daughter as I just did when Fox News called Ohio for Obama. She just couldn't understand why the voters would elect someone like Obama, when so many things are wrong in this country. "Don’t voters care about our country anymore?" she asked pitifully.

I sat down with her on the sofa and (as calmly as I could) tried to explain to her why the voters seem to be abandoning the principles on which our country was founded. "Honey, I am afraid that we have come to the point in our nation’s history when a majority of her people has become fat, lazy and stupid…exploited by the Democrats out to gain power and enrich themselves as the country rots from within.”

I tried to keep my voice steady, but it became increasingly difficult - the rage and feelings of helplessness were just too much. I think my daughter could tell something was wrong. I found myself at such a loss for words - nothing made any sense; nothing makes sense anymore. I finally had to admit, "Honey, I just don't know - I don't know what's going on in this country anymore..."

When I finished her lower lip started to tremble and her eyes began to fill with tears, "Daddy" she said, "why are the Democrats doing this to the country?" Well, that was it for me: I finally fell apart. She just fell into my arms and we both began sobbing for several minutes.

For once she had to comfort me and get me back on my feet. Sometimes I just think it's too much, but seeing the strength in my young daughter's voice helped me to get through.




TOO CUTE BY HALF (update 11/07): Well, perhaps CheChe isn’t as well known or widely remembered as I had thought. For those who may not remember, let’s point to some reminders of the mini-celebrity from 2006.

Back then CheChe was parodying the left’s reaction to political setback. But it wasn’t clear at first that it was the work of a parodist. Because it rang true. Because people on both the left and the right knew that such a reaction was in line with what one could expect from the blogospheric left.

I hope no one thought that I so completely fell to pieces that I was relying on my five year old daughter for strength because I couldn’t hold it together. That’s not me, and I hope no one believes that is a reaction that rings true of the larger blogospheric right. It certainly does not in the places I traverse.

My post, which may have been too oblique for its own good, is intended in the same spirit as Jim Treacher’s:

IF YOU'RE STILL FEELING DOWN IN THE DUMPS, CONSOLE YOURSELF WITH THIS:

You're not them.

(Thanks to Jim who reminded me that not everybody may remember CheChe)

We get defeated and it hurts. I didn't necessarily shed a tear, but I definitely got that "punch in the gut" feeling. But the pain doesn’t debilitate us, it motivates us. We do not rely upon the strength of children to help us keep it together, even if we do look to them for inspiration in our efforts, hoping to pass on to them a nation that is strong and prosperous and free.

We get up, get to work, and – since I committed a Biden in this post by seemingly attributing the words of another to myself, I will use him too in this point – we gird our loins for the inevitable battles that the results of this election ensure that we will face.

Our strength is not diminished even when our political power has been. Let’s get to work.

Tuesday, November 4, 2008

Election Day

Want to follow election results in North Carolina?

Here is the state board of elections results website.

Election returns won’t come out until after the polls close this evening. But we will hear about exit polls before that.

Don’t pay attention. Or if you do, cast a very suspicious eye toward them -- Trust Exit Polls at Your Peril.

And above all else, VOTE.

Yes, it is likely going to be a long night.



UPDATE (12:56 AM 11/05): We've held on as long as we could -- trying to wait until North Carolina is called. It's close. Obama was up early, at one point by 8 points, even before Mecklenberg, Wake and Durham counties were reporting. Then McCain came back and took the lead, no more than 1-2 points for a very long time. And just recently, Obama retook the lead, by a fraction of a point. 99% of precincts in -- but no one is calling the race. Razor thin.

AND: Congratulations to now President-elect Barack Obama. We don't like him. We don't support many of his positions. But we respect the fact that he won. We respect the office to which he has been elected. We will oppose him vigorously in the policies he says he will pursue. But when inaugurated, he will be the President. Our opposition will be respectful of the office, of the president -- and, we hope, respectable in the way we conduct it.

Saturday, November 1, 2008

Trust Exit Polls at Your Peril

Jim Geraghty posted this yesterday:

McCain Voters Less Likely To Respond To Exit Pollsters

Obviously, it's tough to measure the attitudes of those who refuse to talk to pollsters, but this question in Fox News' latest survey confirms a long-held suspicion [...]

Now, I'll tell you now - polls close first in Kentucky, Indiana, Georgia and Virginia at 7 p.m. eastern Tuesday . I find it extremely likely that Indiana and Virginia will be called for Obama immediately after the polls close by at least one network, based on these exit polls that have fewer pro-McCain respondents.

The ingredients are there for a rerun of 2004, when the exit polls indicated a Kerry victory and deviated signficantly from the actual results.

Most interesting. Let's put this in the context of a piece Rick Ballard wrote at American Thinker:

It is my belief that the story from Marion County will become the equivalent of the early call of Florida for Gore in the 2000 election. I expect to see early stories of "massive and unexpected turnout in Indianapolis" all day long with a very early call (like 6:01) of Marion County for Obama, followed by "if McCain is doing this poorly in Indiana, it's all over". The whole purpose of such a story will be to suppress Republican turnout in states where the polls are still open, particularly in Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada.

There is no question that this election is going to be tight. There is also no question that it will be the Republican Get Out The Vote effort which will make or break John McCain's chance of winning. There is no question that Obama, Axelrod and the media will be working hand in glove all day Tuesday to generate as much positive noise about the inevitability of an Obama win as possible. There is a solution to the problem: "Now get out there and vote, dammit"

Yes, Florida in 2000, and the election of 2004, let's just say there's a pattern. Speaking of 2004, when the first exit polls came out, we were subjected to reports that John Kerry was up big in key states. Liberals and Democats were ecstatic, Conservatives and Repulicans were despondent. Both swallowed what the poll data was selling. The Kerry campaign began its premature victory dance:

Kerry spokesman Mike McCurry said Friday that on election day, as Kerry was conducting four hours of local television interviews aimed at increasing last-minute turnout, McCurry and top aides John Sasso and Bob Schrum were receiving wildly positive reports from their state directors and encouraging exit polls on their Blackberrys.

McCurry said they didn't dare tell Kerry the good news, for fear he might stop the interviews, but Schrum could not contain his optimism the moment the candidate had finished.

"Let me be the first to call you Mr. President,'' Schrum said to Kerry.

(and proving that he does not learn from history, Shrum wanted to be the first to call Obama Mr. President, too)

Bob Shrum was not only the first person to call John Kerry "Mr. President", he was the last -- apart from those deluded or those making jokes at his expense.

But listen. We're in for it again on Tuesday. Mark my words. Gird your loins. Trying to sift through innacurate exit polls...it'll be like cleaning the Augean stables, man.

Rest assured, we will hear stories of Obama winning, and winning big, in exit polls. And as Mr. Ballard mentions, it will be used in a manner to help write the narrative that an Obama win is upon us, inevitable, imminent, that there is no need to vote, McCain supporters out west might as well stay home.

But raw exit poll data is seriously flawed for the reason that Geraghty points out. Let's take a look at the numbers. I went to the Fox survey so I could get the break downs for Very likely, Somewhat likely, Not very likely and Not likely at all categories for both candidates in terms of responding to exit pollsters.

Obama
Very likely = 46%
Somewhat likely = 31%
Not very likely = 9%
Not likely at all = 11%

McCain
Very likely = 35%
Somewhat likely = 29%
Not very likely = 16%
Not likely at all = 16%

Next, let's assign an assumed response rate to each category to represent the percentage of those who would actually participate in an exit poll...

Very likely = 87.5%
Somewhat likely = 62.5%
Not very likely = 37.5%
Not likely at all = 12.5%

NOW...applying the value for the percentage of Obama and McCain supporters who say they are in each category to the response rate of each category, you can estimate the number of voters who would actually participate in an exit poll.

Exit Polling: Who Responds

That is, if you asked 100 Obama voters to participate in an exit poll, you would get the following totals…

Obama
Very likely = 40.3
(out of 100 Obama voters polled, 46 of them would be in this category and 87.5% of them would agree to participate)
Somewhat likely = 19.4
Not very likely = 3.4
Not likely at all = 1.4
TOTAL = 64.4

Out of 100 actual Obama voters, 64.4 would agree to participate in the exit poll.

And if you asked 100 McCain voters…

McCain
Very likely = 30.6
Somewhat likely = 18.1
Not very likely = 6.0
Not likely at all = 2.0
TOTAL = 56.8

Out of 100 actual McCain voters, 56.8 would agree to participate in the exit poll.

Out of 200 actual voters asked, 121.2 would agree to participate in the exit poll.

NOW…let's say you were to ask 1,000,000 people to participate in an exit poll in an election where the vote was split exactly 50/50…

Exit Polling: 50-50 Scenario


Obama -- 53.1%

McCain -- 46.9 %

Obama would have a lead of 6.2% in the exit poll when the vote was actually 50/50.

Or if you reverse the process…and had the same situation -- but the election itself was McCain 53.1% and Obama 46.9%...the exit polls would show 50/50!!!

Exit Polling: 53-47 Scenario

Watch those exit poll numbers as they come out Tuesday evening. In the hands of competent and objective analysts, who account for the likelihood that Obama voters will participate more than McCain supporters, there can be some great information about who is winning.

In the hands of an Obamaphilic media eager to write the narrative that Obama is winning in order to suppress votes?

Be prepared to endure a great amount of disinformation.

And no matter anything else, let's return to Mr. Ballard's admonition:

"Now get out there and vote, dammit"





Friday, October 31, 2008

I Voted

And thanks to Obama's successful efforts to bring me to a complete distrust, disgust, distaste for him, I didn't even have to get drunk to proudly vote for McCain-Palin. And not only did I pull the lever touch the screen for McCain-Palin...


I Voted Today


...I found a down-ballot, uncontested race and wrote in Joe the Plumber.


Sunday, October 19, 2008

Obama-Biden: Flip Flops Sold Separately

Remember this billboard? We posted it a couple of weeks ago:

Obama-Biden Billboard

We did you a disservice, dear reader, by by not giving you the full context:

Obama-Biden_Flip-Flop
Obama-Biden: Flip Flops We Can't Afford

The man of hope and change rhetoric in the primaries was a doctrinaire liberal. Well, Obama did change. Obama became the man of politics as usual in the general election having flip flopped to the center on a number of issues. It's quite a feat, actually, when you think about it.

But who is the real Obama? When elected, how will he govern and what will he do? Do we look at his completely liberal record, or his completely malleable rhetoric?

Obama is most certainly selling his flip flops.

Dan McLaughlin had some ideas about Obama's flip flops back in August.

Thursday, October 16, 2008

McCain-Obama Presidential Debate: Word Up

OK, stats and graphics from last night's final Presidential debate between Obama and McCain at Hofstra University, using this transcript.

We'll roughly follow the same format as we did for the VP debate.

So, how many words did each candidate speak in the debate?

Barack Obama: 7,356
John McCain: 6,642

So it wasn't just our imagination. Obama kept going on and on and on and on. If only we loved the sound of Obama's voice as much as he did.

And how was their speaking level?

Obama:
Flesch Reading Ease: 71.73
Flesch-Kincaid Grade Level: 6.00

McCain:
Flesch Reading Ease: 75.10
Flesch-Kincaid Grade Level: 5.00

Well. If we look back at these scores in the VP debate things are very clear (that post also has a discussion of the Flesch Reading Ease and the Flesch-Kincaid Grade Level scores).

Palin clearly speaks at the highest level, Obama-Biden are mired in mediocrity, and McCain speaks at the level best understood by the electorate. At least that's our spin and we're sticking to it.

Finally, here are word clouds created from the transcript for Obama and McCain.

Obama:

Obama Debate Word Cloud

McCain:

McCain Debate Word Cloud

You can click on either image to enlarge. Word clouds created with Wordle

First early voting returns are in

Obama is winning the early vote here in Greensboro, North Carolina, according to our local newspaper.

In fact, according to the evidence presented in the article, Obama is up by 5%!

That is, Obama is at 5% to McCain’s 0% -- in buttons, t-shirts and signs at the polls.

GREENSBORO — If they counted votes as they went, it's probably safe to say that Barack Obama is leading the presidential balloting in Guilford County.

Obama supporters — as measured by signs, buttons and T-shirts, anyway — showed up in force at the old Guilford County Courthouse this morning, the first day of early voting in North Carolina.

When the polls opened at 8 a.m., about 200 people waited to vote in a line that doubled back on itself inside a first-floor hallway and stretched out a side door. ...

Roughly one out of 20 had a button or T-shirt that showed their support for the Democratic candidate for president. Several more wore buttons supporting Teresa Sue Bratton, who is challenging Republican Howard Coble for the 6th District seat in the U.S. House.

Outside the courthouse, about 20 people waved "Teamsters for Obama/Biden" and "Carolina is Obama Country" signs at the traffic heading downtown on West Market. A few drivers honked back.

There was no evidence of any organized presence from John McCain's campaign either inside or outside the courthouse.

So, roughly 1 out of 20 – or 10 people out of 200 – had some type of Obama paraphernalia in line to vote, therefore it is safe to say that Obama is leading if they counted the votes?

Actually, it would not be surprising that of those who voted at the old Guilford County Courthouse downtown this morning, Obama is leading. But on this evidence? Please.

And besides, John McCain supporters are headed 20 miles east for the Sarah Palin rally in Elon, NC today -- and waiting for the additional 11 polling sites that will open on Sunday to vote a little closer to home.

But today, Obama is on track to win the election for Merchandiser-in-Chief down at the old courthouse.

Wednesday, October 15, 2008

Whatever it takes?

Would Harry Reid and Chuck Schumer be willing to do whatever it takes to win an election?

Whatever it takes?

Whatever, they certanly make a mendacious, ruthless, vile and heartless team.

Plan A: Lose Iraq, Blame Republicans:

Friday, April 13, 2007:

"We're going to pick up Senate seats as a result of this war," Senate Majority Leader Harry M. Reid (Nev.) told reporters yesterday. "Senator Schumer has shown me numbers that are compelling and astounding."

The worse Iraq became, the better the Democrats' electoral prospects became.

Which is the reason for the Reid sabotage offensive shortly thereafter:

Thursday, April 19, 2007:

"I believe ... that this war is lost, and this surge is not accomplishing anything"

Tuesday, April 24, 2007:

CNN Interviewer: "General Petraeus is going to come to the Hill...and make it clear to you that there is progress going on in Iraq...will you believe him?"

Reid: "No. I won't believe him because it isn't happening."

Reid was doing his best to undermine the surge. Unfortunately for Democratic electoral hopes, and most fortunately for our national security interests, defeat in Iraq was thwarted and the US is on the course of victory in Iraq -- thanks to the steadfastness of President Bush and thanks to the brilliance of General Petraeus and the troops.

The Democrats' Plan A was rendered inoperative, so whatever could the Reid-Schumer cabal do?

Plan B, of course. There is always a Plan B.

Plan B: Tank the Economy, Blame Republicans:

Thursday, June 26, 2008:

Schumer, a senior member of the Senate Banking Committee, who used his position of authority to communicate to the OTS and the FDIC that he was "concerned that IndyMac's financial deterioration poses significant risks to both taxpayers and borrowers," and that IndyMac "could face a failure if prescriptive measures are not taken quickly."

Everything might have been fine had Schumer stopped there, but Schumer (being Schumer) took the additional step of releasing the letter to the press.

Friday, July 11, 2008:

IndyMac Regulator, the Office of Thrift Supervision: "The OTS has determined that the current institution, IndyMac Bank, is unlikely to be able to meet continued depositors’ demands in the normal course of business and is therefore in an unsafe and unsound condition. The immediate cause of the closing was a deposit run that began and continued after the public release of a June 26 letter to the OTS and the FDIC from Senator Charles Schumer of New York. The letter expressed concerns about IndyMac’s viability. In the following 11 business days, depositors withdrew more than $1.3 billion from their accounts.”

Wednesday, October 1, 2008:

Senator Reid: "a major insurance company -- one with a name that everyone knows -- that's on the verge of going bankrupt,"

Thursday, October 2, 2008:

But with investors already on high alert after the Federal Reserve's rescue of insurance titan American International Group Inc. on Sept. 16, and with the credit crunch still making funding difficult for even the largest U.S. financial companies, Reid's comments were the equivalent of pouring gasoline on a grease fire. MetLife plunged $7.19, or 15%, to $40.96; Hartford dived $12.20, or 32%, to $25.91; and Prudential slid $7.15, or 11%, to $57.65.

So, would Reid and Schumer rather lose a war and tank the economy than lose an election?

Or is it incompetence that pushes them to push for policies that would lose a war and push out statements that tank the economy?

Or both.

Thursday, October 9, 2008

Welcome to the party, North Carolina

So, as we’ve already had to admit, North Carolina is a battleground state. The polls are volatile and much closer than most people would have expected at this point.

Of course, this means we will be subjected to relentless campaign ads.

John Hinderaker at Powerline says that Obama may be outspending McCain 7 to 1 in North Carolina. We believe it. Just last night we had the tv on in the background when an Obama ad came on. No big deal, really, campaign ads are so ubiquitous that they rarely pierce our consciousness. Except this time, the ad kept going, and going, and going. So we went back and checked by rewinding the DVR.

Obama made a 2 minute ad purchase at 8pm. Egads. We know he knows that he can’t reach us whether it is 30 seconds or two minutes or four score and twenty years. But there are voters he can reach with that kind of air time, we suppose.

But there is something else that comes with the status of battleground state. As Hinderaker points out his post, battleground states attract the efforts of ACORN, the notorious organization who puts great efforts into voter registration, not infrequently running afoul of the law in those efforts.

Hinderaker points out current investigations of fraud by ACORN in states such as Missouri, Nevada, Connecticut (not a battleground state, but the ramped up efforts there probably reflect fears that Joe Lieberman might have been named McCain's VP, putting the state in play), Ohio, and Wisconsin. Michelle Malkin also points out Indiana. And don’t forget about New Mexico.

And with North Carolina's induction into the club of battleground states, you know what that means.

Welcome to the party, North Carolina. (h/t Freerepublic)

Republican National Committee officials on Friday blasted a group that's registering voters in Durham, calling it "a quasi-criminal, Democratic-affiliated organization" that represents a danger to the electoral process.

The move by RNC Chief Counsel Sean Cairncross and Communications Director Danny Diaz followed a Herald-Sun report that Durham County Board of Elections Director Mike Ashe wants state officials to check about 80 voter registration forms for possible fraud.

The forms came from a group called the Association of Community Organizations for Reform Now. The group is more commonly known by its acronym, ACORN.

Cairncross said RNC officials "commend the vigilance" Ashe showed, and will continue to monitor the situation. He added that ACORN is "a malignant organization" with a long track record of vote-fraud transgressions. …

Ashe's move this week came after elections officials discovered that ACORN workers had registered a 14-year-old, claiming the youth was born in 1989. The minimum voting age is 18.

They also knew of "less than half a dozen" people who, after receiving a formal notice from the board telling them they'd registered, got in touch with officials to say they'd never filled out a registration form, Ashe said.

In addition, election workers also noticed that ACORN-submitted registration forms so far have included up to 125 duplicate names. It appeared that ACORN registrars -- who are paid and subject to a per-shift quota -- were using the same names repeatedly, Ashe said.

"I got like 15 Brenda Greens," Ashe said. "We're starting to get enough now that the names are looking familiar." ...

Cairncross said ACORN has figured in vote-fraud allegations in past elections in Washington, Missouri and Pennsylvania. Registrars from the group have faced criminal charges in all of those states.

The group's misconduct is "widescale [and] nationwide," he added.

Sunday, October 5, 2008

Team McCain's Magic Quadrant

Earlier we had a post showing Team Obama's Magic Quadrant Breakdown of Election 2008.

Now for the Magic Quadrant of the election as seen by the Republicans. The GOP uses the traditional Magic Quadrant definitions for each axis, Ability to Execute and Completeness of Vision, with the overall measure being who can bring reform to Washington (original Magic Quadrants were developed by research and consulting firm Gartner).

In choosing Sarah Palin, John McCain has made clear that his overarching theme is one of government reform, trying to steal the rug out from under Obama on "change".

Who has brought about reform in government? Who has worked in bi-partisan ways to bring change? Who has bucked their own party to get things done?

For our purposes here, we will focus on the least known of the candidates, letting Beldar present the case for Palin as an accomplished reformer.



Wednesday, September 24, 2008

More than just a slogan

John McCain is suspending his campaign to return to Washington to deal with the financial crisis:

America this week faces an historic crisis in our financial system. We must pass legislation to address this crisis. If we do not, credit will dry up, with devastating consequences for our economy. People will no longer be able to buy homes and their life savings will be at stake. Businesses will not have enough money to pay their employees. If we do not act, ever corner of our country will be impacted. We cannot allow this to happen.

Last Friday, I laid out my proposal and I have since discussed my priorities and concerns with the bill the Administration has put forward. Senator Obama has expressed his priorities and concerns. This morning, I met with a group of economic advisers to talk about the proposal on the table and the steps that we should take going forward. I have also spoken with members of Congress to hear their perspective.

It has become clear that no consensus has developed to support the Administration’s proposal. I do not believe that the plan on the table will pass as it currently stands, and we are running out of time.

Tomorrow morning, I will suspend my campaign and return to Washington after speaking at the Clinton Global Initiative. I have spoken to Senator Obama and informed him of my decision and have asked him to join me.

Why? Well, for all the reasons of political advantage, of course.

But that's not all. As ABC reported this morning, Congress seems paralyzed, waiting for McCain to act:

ABC News' George Stephanopoulos reports: If Republican presidential candidate Sen. John McCain doesn't vote for the Bush administration's $700 billion economic bailout plan, some Republican and Democratic congressional leaders tell ABC News the plan won't pass.

"If McCain doesn't come out for this, it's over," a Top House Republican tells ABC News.

A Democratic leadership source says that White House Chief of Staff Josh Bolten has been told that Democratic votes will not be there if McCain votes no -- that there is no deal if McCain doesn't go along.

And here in video:

Charlie Gibson: "So this really rests on McCain's shoulders?"

George Stephanopoulous: "And it's not a free vote for him Charlie...if he goes no, this package will likely fail and he will bear the consequence for that."

So in suspending his campaign, McCain rises to the challenge, and rides in to the rescue.

But now Harry Reid isn't so sure:

A Democrat tells ABC News that in a phone call late this afternoon, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., told Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., that it would NOT be helpful for him to come back to Washington, DC, to work on the Wall Street bailout bill.

McCain this afternoon suspended his campaign and said he would skip the first presidential debate in order to return to Capitol Hill to work on the log jammed Bush administration legislation, which as of Wednesday afternoon was in peril. ...

McCain had phoned Reid to ask about the prospects of him, Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., and others to sit down and work together on hammering out a bipartisan proposal.

"Sorry," Reid said to him, a Democrat close to Reid says.

Apparently McCain's campaign slogan of "Country First" is more than just a slogan, while Democrats like Reid have no idea how to operate outside of slogans, none of which include the idea of putting country first.

And yes, we'll probably hear, "He'd rather lose and election to save the economy, than win an election and lose the economy" more than a few times in the coming days and weeks.

As a slogan? Sure, no doubt.

But does McCain mean it outside of just a slogan? We think so.

Congress wants to put the weight of the world on his shoulders to lessen their collective burden in this crisis, and McCain is saying in response:

I’ve been an imperfect servant of my country for many years. But I have been her servant first, last and always. ...

I’m not running for president because I think I’m blessed with such personal greatness that history has anointed me to save our country in its hour of need. My country saved me. My country saved me, and I cannot forget it. And I will fight for her for as long as I draw breath, so help me God.

Saturday, September 20, 2008

Surrogates gone wild

Ruth Marcus in the Washington Post takes up the cause of ending the Surrogate Wars:

Both candidates should declare a surrogate cease-fire. Surrogates are the loose nukes of political campaigns, except more likely to detonate. To be precise, more likely to detonate themselves. Campaigns are the collateral damage. The toxic fallout wafts over cable shows for days. Surrogates create an atmosphere of Mutually Assured Embarrassment -- without the deterrent effect.

Surrogates have always played a campaign role, but the 24/7 news cycle of cable TV amplified by the Internet has made them more ubiquitous, and therefore more dangerous, than ever. How many times during this race have candidates’ messages been forced off-track by a surrogate gone astray? As with weaponry, the question becomes: are they worth the risk? Can a rational campaign safely bet that its surrogates are more likely to hit the target than the other sides’?

The 2008 Surrogate Wars suggest not. ...

Yes, I hear you saying, pitifully naïve. Given a choice between having a serious discussion about state regulation of insurance and Carly casually mentioning Viagra, we in the media are going to go for the Viagra every time. So out with the appeals to elevated discourse; in with the argument for enlightened self-interest. Campaign managers: You get antsy about outside groups weighing in on their side because it interferes with your message. Well, your surrogates are doing the same. Force cable to focus on what your candidate is saying (not that he’s always on message) or dredge up another “strategist” no one’s ever heard of. Ditch the surrogates.

We took a look at surrogate follies back in August (”Speak for yourself”), agreeing with a Huffington Post writer that the surrogate battles are out of control.

And we agree with Marcus today.

Our suggestion back in August, or really our lament, was that Town Halls between both candidates could help reduce the 24/7 media’s reliance on surrogates to fill airtime, allowing more direct coverage of the candidates directly engaging one another.

But of course, for every town hall or debate, the 24/7 media coverage would rely on surrogates to battle it out over who can spin their candidate’s performance as being superior. So maybe town halls wouldn’t solve the problem.

And really, even if formal campaign surrogates were to be banished, we would still be left with the overwhelming presence of Obama’s informal network of surrogates, the media themselves.

So what to do?

Joint town halls are still the answer. As is any other venue in which Obama can be presented with an opportunity to speak without a teleprompter.

Friday, September 19, 2008

Team Obama's Magic Quadrants

How does Team Obama see the race?

McCain is old and out of touch (never mind that Biden has been in the Senate longer than McCain).

Palin is inexperienced and not ready (never mind that Obama has zero executive experience and less than two years more as Senator than Palin as governor).

Or to put it in pictures, Team Obama's Magic Quadrant Breakdown of Election 2008:








Thursday, September 18, 2008

Just like me

John McCain’s selection of Sarah Palin to be his vice presidential running mate has created a new dynamic in this year’s presidential election. For months, pundits and experts (not always the same thing) have been telling us that the election came down to a referendum on Barack Obama. Because of the fatigue felt toward President Bush in the waning days of his administration, voters are ready enough for change to vote for just about any Democrat – all Obama has to do was pass some minimal bar of acceptability to prove he would be capable at the helm.

It would be McCain’s job, not so much to prove himself capable, for few people would deny that his experience and history have prepared him for such a role, but to work to convince voters that Barack Obama was not ready and not right for this nation, especially at this time.

While that dynamic still exists – of course Obama will not be elected president if he does not pass the capability test – the importance of it is now being challenged due to the excitement surrounding Sarah Palin’s inclusion on the GOP ticket. Sarah Palin is the new rock star, the hot celebrity, the hip and happening center of gravity now in the campaign.

The excitement and deep emotions cut both ways, of course. As excited as Republicans and conservatives are, Democrats and liberals are shaken and dismayed. For every campaign stop with thousands of screaming and adoring supporters chanting “Sa-rah Sa-rah”, there are elite media personalities and Democratic operatives and even Obama campaign representatives willing to drag Sarah Palin through the gutter of rumors and smears and whispers and lies. As is true almost any time cable news becomes must-see-TV, the results are largely cringe-inducing.

This new stage in the campaign is all about who Sarah Palin is, what she represents, and how people react to someone so completely unlike the politicians we expect to run on a national ticket in an election for the highest office in the country.

Sarah Palin has never been exposed to the national media, and perhaps more importantly the national media has never been exposed to Sarah Palin or anyone like her as a nominee in a presidential campaign. Palin doesn’t run in the elite media cocktail circuit and shows no interest in doing so. Palin took direct aim at the media in her acceptance speech when she said,

I've learned quickly these last few days that, if you're not a member in good standing of the Washington elite, then some in the media consider a candidate unqualified for that reason alone.

But -- now, here's a little newsflash. Here's a little newsflash for those reporters and commentators: I'm not going to Washington to seek their good opinion. I'm going to Washington to serve the people of this great country.

Sarah Palin creates an antipathy in the elite media. She is ambitious, but to get things done rather than to be well-known or to be well-liked. And while the elite media sees themselves as the gatekeepers of information to be disseminated to the public, in Palin they are confronted with someone who is willing and so far able to speak to the public directly with or without them.

Sarah Palin has come under intense criticism for her resume from all corners of the Democratic Party establishment. She was the mayor of a small town, she attended five colleges none of them elite private institutions, and she doesn’t even have a graduate level degree.

Sarah Palin is a working mom, mother of five, happily married to her high school sweetheart. Hers is a story of the every day, working class woman who has succeeded in everything she has done, and who has been rewarded with advancement after achieving her goals through determination and hard work. And Palin’s record as a public official is filled with accomplishment, bi-partisan success and even reform against the interests of her own party.

The Democratic Party establishment is geared toward battling old, rich men who either come from well-connected families or who have long connections to those families and circles. Democrats are well-prepared to take on the likes of a John McCain, Mitt Romney, or George Bush, and have geared their operations for such opponents, including developing a well-defined message on how to defeat such politicians.

Without the old playbook to go by, Democrats find themselves reduced to a Hillary Clintonesque kitchen sink strategy against Palin. Throw anything and everything against her. But this undisciplined approach has given them over to a highly emotional and in many cases utterly repulsive response that reeks of sexism and elitism. It has produced spasms of vile and hateful words, whose purpose is not so much to defeat a political rival, but to destroy a specific person.

But for Republicans and for independent voters outside of the deeply blue enclaves or outside of the mindset of the deeply blue partisan, Sarah Palin doesn’t create such excitement because she is the answer to the “who do you want to have a beer with” question. She doesn’t stir deep emotions in voters because she is the one we have waited for who can understand our problems and feel our pain from a distance. Because no matter how much those things are attempts to make a politician someone we can relate to, and who we think can relate to us – it still keeps them at arms’ length and separate.

Sarah Palin is not a person educated in the halls of Ivy League universities. She is not from a long line of political stock. She did not inherit the legacy of a powerful family. She was not mentored by politically connected professionals to be groomed for high government positions. She is not a politician who happens to be a mother and a wife – she is a mother and a wife who has set out through hard work and determination to ascend the political ladder to the position of governor and now as the vice presidential nominee in the Republican Party.

Sarah Palin doesn’t own seven houses, and she doesn’t take her kids to school using a limousine. Her husband is a member of the local union, and her community organizing experience is that of PTA mom. Even the things that would make her exotic, like being a former beauty queen, reflect more popular culture than high society. And even though very few people can relate to the experience of killing a moose, the idea of a hunter and outdoorsman paint a picture of someone well grounded in the type of middle-American values most people can identify with. And while all of that provides the basis for the vituperation among the elite media and the Democratic Party establishment, it endears here to most everyone else in a way not usually seen in a politician.

Sarah Palin is the politician who voters look at and say, “she is just like me”.

And therein lies the new dynamic of the race for the next six weeks. Make no mistake, John McCain and Barack Obama are the presidential nominees. Behind the curtain of the voting booth, voters’ minds will focus on the choice between those two men.

But now, with Sarah Palin having taken center stage in the election, as voters we will be forced to ask ourselves new questions leading up to the point of pulling that lever (or fingering the touch screen or punching chads, but I digress). Should the pinnacle of government be reserved only for the elite, highly-educated and well-connected and single-minded career politicians? Are such people better positioned and experienced to make the decisions of how the government should be run, to the exclusion of those like Sarah Palin, those who are “just like me”?

Answers to these questions may well determine the outcome in this year’s presidential election.

Monday, September 8, 2008

Palin is a hit…or a click

The thought occurred to us this morning – how many Google hits does each candidate in this year’s presidential race get.

Here you go - the Google results count for each candidate/ticket run this morning:

Results 1 - 10 of about 44,400,000 for "john mccain". (0.17 seconds)
Results 1 - 10 of about 21,800,000 for "sarah palin". (0.11 seconds)

Total GOP: about 66,200,000

Results 1 - 10 of about 63,800,000 for "barack obama". (0.16 seconds)
Results 1 - 10 of about 5,750,000 for "joe biden". (0.20 seconds)

Total DNC: about 69,550,000

Hmmm, Palin really fills the "Google search results gap" on the GOP ticket. We wonder if the GOP ticket is on its way to overtaking the Dems in overall Google search results?

Might keep track of this one.

Tuesday, September 2, 2008

On Sarah Palin

Having taken the weekend off, we fear we have nothing original to add to the conversation surrounding John McCain selecting Sarah Palin.

So, please indulge us while we make a couple of surely unoriginal points that others have surely already made, and surely better – but ones that strike us in Palin as McCain’s running mate.

First, there was no question that selecting Palin would loose the hounds of the angry and hateful Left. It was our first thought when reading about the pick. And it is not pretty. And it is not commendable. And it is not beneficial to the Obama campaign. Exposing the malignancy of the angry and hateful Left may have been reason 1,238 for selecting Palin. But in the end, if she proves a credible campaigner and her experience and biography and judgment and temperament as displayed in her time in public service prove acceptable to voters, it may be a much more important reason for a McCain-Palin win than it was for McCain having selected her to begin with.

Palin has a hurdle to clear here, simply because she is unknown. But if that hurdle is cleared, the Democrats will end up greatly regretting the treatment Palin has received from those on the Left, including bloggers, people in the media and even other Democratic politicians. You don’t go after candidates’ families and expect voters to respect or support your party for long.

Second, when Joe Biden was announced as Obama’s running mate, one clear role that was planned for him was to be the attack dog, going after McCain. Which is a smart strategy if it can be pulled off. Because if the presidential nominee on one ticket has to spend time responding to and engaging the vice presidential nominee of the other ticket, it takes him down a notch. If McCain has to spend time fending off Joe Biden (why does it just feel more natural to include both his first and last name? We really don’t know) he looks more like VP material to some extent.

Interestingly, the Palin pick creates the same dynamic for Palin-Obama discussion and comparison. Many people seemed to think that having Palin on the ticket would take the experience card away from the McCain campaign. We disagree; it makes it a very necessary discussion to have. Because “experience” is something that really is a legitimate issue to be addressed by both Palin and Obama, Obama has to answer questions comparing their experience. It takes him down a notch. How much? Maybe not that much, but if it continues over a long period of time, it could have an effect.

In the end, the two tickets are inversions of each other. The long-serving Senator with foreign policy gravitas is presidential nominee on the one and the vice presidential nominee on the other. The new-to-the-scene fresh face is the presidential nominee on the one and the vice presidential nominee on the other. Whatever arguments that are raised about experience will highlight which ticket values experience in the top of the ticket.

But that’s enough. Again, others will have written more important things about Palin and how her election affects the race.

As for us? Our mind is reeling from the one-liners and photoshop possibilities that having Palin in the race creates. Time to buckle down and get back to what we do best.

Friday, August 29, 2008

Have a great weekend

We’re on our way out for a long holiday weekend, and news that McCain has selected Sarah Palin as his running mate puts a little extra bounce in our step.

For our money, we’d pay attention to Geraghtyfor coverage.

That is, if we were inclined to take our laptop with us for the weekend.

Which we’re not.

See you Monday.

Or Tuesday if we have too much fun over the weekend.

Hope we see you Tuesday.

Wednesday, August 27, 2008

Hope has left the building

Well, at first glance we were skeptical of this report on the direction the Democrats would take the convention.

DNC plans to sink teeth into McCain

DENVER -- From the convention hall: All evidence points to a Democratic convention that will have a take-no-prisoners aggressive approach all week, driving home the contrast between John McCain and Barack Obama at every opportunity possible. […]

Democratic analyst Mark Siegel said, "We begged the Kerry people to make the [2004] election a plebiscite on Bush […]

Siegel said "Shrum ... would not let us do it, telling us that we can't go negative, just go positive, build Kerry up, don't drive Bush down, etc."

"Well, we got no bump because we gave them a pass," Siegel said, adding that he tried to emphasize "what Karl Rove would do with this deck of cards, but to no avail."

Siegel says if it winning means playing aggressive with a tough game plan then so be it. "We've tried it the other way ... and that was catastrophe."

Oh sure, there have been signs that Obama's new politics is in its last throes, that cynicism is still calling the shots, and that divisive partisanship, despite whatever setbacks it had suffered in the primaries, is now resurgent in the general election.

But the convention?

Surely the convention is the time in which Obama rises above the old politics of fear and division to restore the hope for a new politics free of the cynicism that tears us down, and for change that elevates us to the heights of the mountain top to which He seeks to take us.

Right? Oh...

A senior Obama adviser, speaking on condition of anonymity, said his boss has expressed impatience with what he calls a "reverence" inside his campaign for his message of change and new politics. In other words, Obama is willing — even eager — to risk what got him this far if it gets him to the White House.

Well there you go. So much for new politics and hope and change.

And here you go, looks like the Democrats are making it official:

Democratic National Convention Stage

(Thanks to JM Hanes)

(August 21, 2008) Final touches are being made at the
Pepsi Center in Denver, Colorado, site of the
2008 Democratic National Convention.
Here program technicians rehearse the well-scripted
ceremonial unveiling of the new convention theme:
Lasciate ogne speranza, voi ch'intrate,
a phrase based on Dante’s Divine Comedy, which
translated is, "Abandon hope, ye who enter here".


Sunday, August 24, 2008

It's Biden

Barack Obama has selected Senator Joe Biden of Delaware as his Vice Presidential running mate.

Sure, you're likely going to hear all sorts of analysis as to why he's great (foreign policy gravitas) and why he's awful (ultimate Washington insider).

And of course, you'll also likely hear how Biden is known for his many gaffes. Perhaps Obama is attempting to put someone on the ticket who will make him look good by comparison -- though we would contend that it will be a close call.

But one thing we are sure you are going to be reminded of -- Biden's first love, his own voice. Obama appears to have found his equal in this regard.

But just why are we so sure that you will be reminded of this last point?

Because we have become aware of a soon-to-be-released book by Joe Biden, and we have acquired this proof copy of the book cover:

Biden: In My Own Words

Our sources have also provided us with a photo of Biden delivering his first manuscript to the publisher:

Biden delivering manuscript

(AUGUST 23, 2008) -- Democratic vice presidential
candidate, Senator Joe Biden (D-DE) delivers
the manuscript of the first chapter of his
forthcoming book, In My Own Words to his
publisher on Saturday, less than 24 hours after being
named by Democratic presidential candidate
Barack Obama for the number two spot.

Thursday, August 21, 2008

Fun with numbers

Seriously, the presidential candidates are really, really bad with numbers...

Senator Obama, how many people died in the Greensburg tornado: 10,000!

Senator McCain, how many years should we stay in Iraq: Make it 100!

Senator Obama, how many states are there: I've been to 57, one left to go, not counting Hawaii and Alaska!

Senator McCain, what's you're definition of rich: How about $5M!

Senator Obama, how long do you expect to be president: 8-10 years!

And now, the latest number blunder in the campaign...

Senator McCain, how many houses do you own: I'll have my staff get to you!

Uh oh. Elite!!! Out of touch!!! That surely adds up to trouble for McCain.

Or does it?

The RNC points us to this recent headline: Researchers say numbers aren't needed to count

Well, no, that's not exactly what they point us to, though the idea is the same.

That is, the RNC contends that the most important difference between McCain and Obama when it comes to houses is not the number six (seven houses for McCain vs. one for Obama).

Rather, Obama living in a glass house is what counts.


IT'S ON:

"I'm John McCain, and I approved this message planned and executed this battle plan."

How long before the house issue is called a "distraction"?